Will Bryce Harper Stay or Will He Go?
Now that the World Series is over, we have entered one of the most star-studded free-agent classes in history of Major League Baseball. This is the offseason that the MLB Players Union has been dreaming of.
The group of players and pitchers will be led by a pair of superstar 25-year-old sluggers: Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel lead the way on the pitching side. Clayton Kershaw was half-expected to be a part of this free-agent class, but he and the Dodgers worked out a three-year deal last week.
Harper and Machado are both in line to receive the type of mega-contracts only the very best in the game receive. It’s not clear yet who will get the most money of the two, though Machado seems to have the tiniest advantage in that there is no draft-pick penalty attached to signing him.
MLB Trade Rumors has Harper listed as the top free agent, so let’s take a look at him first. He started 2018 as hot as can be for about two weeks and then cratered offensively. His OBP and home runs stayed normal, but his batting average, slugging percentage and WAR dropped well below his normal output.
His numbers came around in the second half of the season, but not soon enough to help a struggling Washington Nationals team that just couldn’t seem to get out of its own way.
It’s still a total guess on where Harper will play in 2019 and beyond, but the speculation has begun. So, let’s join in!
NATIONALS
This is the easy answer. The Nationals didn’t trade him when they were shipping out Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Madsen and Matt Adams. That shows they definitely have some interest in keeping him. Or at least it shows they had zero interest in being the guys who traded away a future Hall of Famer. An outfield of Juan Soto, Victor Robles and Bryce Harper would be among the best in the league. However, they still have Adam Eaton for the outfield, so you’d have to trade him for a small return, or get really wild and trade Robles for a huge return. The Nationals are going to need some starting pitching.
BRAVES
This feels like the worst-case scenario for the Nationals. The division rival Braves have a perfect spot for Harper out there with Ronald Acuña and Ender Inciarte. Atlanta surprised everyone this year with their influx of young players performing above expectations and getting the team into the playoffs. Adding Bryce Harper to the Braves lineup would make them the favorite to win the division for the next few years. Atlanta has the money right now, but it’s unclear whether they could afford a huge contract as their younger players salaries escalate with arbitration. Of course, they could just pull a Marlins and trade Harper to the Yankees for the salary relief.
DODGERS
Now that the Dodgers are under the luxury tax, they can get back to spending their massive fortune. This seems almost like too perfect of a fit; like last year’s Red Sox-J.D. Martinez signing. The real hang-up here is Harper is left-handed and the Dodgers already are troubled by a preponderance of southpaws. They already have Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson. Harper is better than Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez, so maybe they trade away one of the lefties. More so than any other team on this list, the Dodgers provide Harper the opportunity to join a team that is winning now and will be for the foreseeable future.
CUBS
There’s talk the Cubs have payroll restrictions and won’t be involved in the Harper Sweepstakes. Okay, sure. Isn’t that exactly what you would say if you were very much in on the Harper Sweepstakes? The Cubs biggest need is in the starting rotation, but, again, with Harper we are talking about a generational talent. If you get him into your lineup with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javy Baez, then you can sort out the problem of what to do with Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber afterward. This thought process helped the Brewers when they traded for Christian Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain. Where will Domingo Santana play? Who cares? We’ve got Yelich and Cain.
GIANTS
The Giants are presently one of the worst-built teams in the league. Their Major League roster is bad and extremely expensive. Their Minor League resources are extremely limited. And they play in the same division as the Dodgers. Harper would be a great addition to the team’s vast wasteland of outfielders. There’s probably no team that would benefit more by adding Harper. Even if the Giants are going to rebuild on the fly, the 10-14 year contract Harper would be signing would mean he’ll be on the roster once the reload takes hold. However, it’s unclear whether Harper is interested in going to a team that looks like it will be losing more games than it wins for the next couple seasons.
