Can Nationals Finish Cinderella Story?
The Washington Nationals proved a lot of people wrong by winning the National League pennant the year after losing superstar outfielder Bryce Harper. Their pitching has been superb in the postseason, they’ve experienced better lineup depth and have been hitting better in the clutch than in previous years. Still, one more hurdle remains: the World Series, and they will be facing an American League juggernaut either way in the Astros or the Yankees. However, having less talent than their opponent hasn’t stopped them before, as they proved against the Dodgers. Here are keys to how the Nationals can pull off an upset against either the Astros or the Yankees.
Key to Beating Astros: Late-Game Hitting
If the Nationals were to face the Astros, it seems like superstar starting pitching on each team would cancel each other out. So, what it could come down to in a lower-scoring, close-game type series would be late-game hitting. The Nationals did it against the Dodgers, especially in Game 5. They did it in some instances against the Cardinals, too, but it was more the historically good starting pitching that won the series.
If they face the Astros, they would likely have to rely on pitching because odds are they aren’t going to score early against guys like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, who has been the best pitcher statistically in the postseason, only allowing one run in three postseason starts, to go along with 32 strikeouts. Therefore, the Nats would have to strike against the Astros bullpen, which has been inconsistent the last three postseasons.
Besides closer Roberto Osuna, there is nobody I trust to be definitively good in their roles. If the Nationals can take advantage of a weak bullpen, they could possibly succeed in those close games, even without home field advantage. They are 4-1 on the road in the postseason and have won in some very difficult environments, so going to Houston shouldn’t be any different.
Seasoned veterans should help them not be phased by the moment, especially somebody like Howie Kendrick who hit the big grand slam in Game 5 against the Dodgers and then won NLCS MVP. Lineup depth will certainly help when it comes to hitting late in games, especially with postseason baseball being less reliant on the home run.
If the Nationals can outplay the Astros late in the game, they can steal games if the dominant starting pitching keeps the Astros in check. Obviously, that’s reliant on the Nationals bullpen playing well enough, too, but guys like Tanner Rainey, Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson have pitched particularly well. If they can weather the storm and hit late off a streaky Astros bullpen, they could pull off a World Series upset.
Key to Beating Yankees: Manage Depth
Throughout the season, the New York Yankees have done a great job at managing a historic amount of injuries. With the exception of D.J. LeMahieu in the lineup and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation, it seems like everybody has been hurt at some point. The silver lining amidst these injuries was how many new players have been discovered as a result. Guys like Gio Urshela, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford and Cameron Maybin provided the Yankees with incredible depth. With younger players getting better this year, too, the Yankees are no longer just a star-driven team; they are a deep team that can beat you with bats and arms.
If the Nationals face the Yankees, Washington’s depth would be tested, especially with the micromanaging Aaron Boone has shown with this pitching staff. This depth would require Nationals manager Dave Martinez to utilize his own depth more often than usual. Granted, the Nationals have more depth than in previous postseasons, but it doesn’t compare to the Yankees.
Asdrubal Cabrera, a switch-hitter, could be particularly valuable to match up with the Yankees bullpen. Good right-handed hitters, like Brian Dozier and Howie Kendrick, can make a difference in later innings, when the Yankees bring in Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. If the Yankees start using their bullpen in the middle of the game, which is common considering only Tanaka has gone past six innings, the Nationals could go to experienced left-handed bats in Matt Adams and Gerardo Parra.
With a deep and versatile bullpen, the Yankees have staved off top-heavy lineups. Although, the error-fest last night moved the Yankees one game from making this conversation all for naught. It will be up to Martinez to out-manage Boone, if the Yankees win the next three games. When it comes to the Yankees hitting depth, the Nationals can definitely trust their three-headed monster of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. However, if they wear down early, Martinez will have to play his bullpen right against those hitters coming off the bench, especially in National League games.
While I don’t think Boone is the world-class manager Yankees fans think he is, I think he has done well considering the injury circumstances this year. However, if Martinez can out-manage Boone enough and force Boone to make a mistake within his star-powered bullpen, the Washington Nationals will have a good chance of upsetting the New York Yankees.
