It’s Wait Till Next Year, Yet Again, for New York Mets
In a New York Post article, the Sports staff opines that the New York Mets were 19-5 over a 24-game run. The stats showcased in the brief article assert it’s largely because of the outstanding performances listed on the page.
Despite the false optimism, if you look closely at the Mets’ schedule the rest of the season, more than likely, it’s wait till next year time, yet again, for the New York Mets.
The Post delves into a series of accomplishments, ranging from the nine home runs Michael Conforto has hit in the last 24 games, to Seth Lugo’s 0.00 ERA, and Zach Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard’s recent effective starting pitching, and even Amed Rosario’s amazing .348 batting average over this period.
Taken by themselves, these are impressive feats rung up by players who should have been performing this way the entire season, but for whatever reasons have not.
It’s Wait till Next Year, Again
What the article does not allude to in its celebration is the quality of the Mets opponents over the 25 games since the All-Star break.
Consider this: Only one team, the Minnesota Twins, was over .500.
Their other five opponents played to a combined 67 games under .500. So, the 26-67 record of the teams they faced equated to a .388 winning percentage. Sounds like Triple-A quality opponents.
That means they were not facing the Clayton Kershaws, Patrick Corbins and Mike Sorokas of the National League. No wonder Mets hitters could clobber the ball. No wonder Michael Conforto came alive. It’s a lot easier to bash meatballs and hanging curveballs from Juan Urena, Chris Archer and Eric Lauer than sliders and change-ups from Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola.
So, theoretically, the Mets’ recent opponents are the very teams that good teams beat up on. Which is why, since the All-Star break, the Mets (amazingly, incredibly) have played like a good team running up a 19-6 record taking them from 40-50 also-rans to a (dangerous? as I’ve heard them described by baseball heads) 59-56 squad.
So, when newspapers like the New York Post print a headline about the Mets recent accomplishments, Behind the numbers: Mets’ second-half surge explained, without contextualizing that the opponents they battled had a .388 winning percentage, they’re leaving out something big.
Look closer at the quality of their opponents over that time, and the answers become quite clear.
Competition Quality Makes a Difference
Imagine if I wrote an article about the Yankees after their recent destruction of the Baltimore Orioles and their Triple-A pitching staff (the Yankees hit 16 home runs and scored 32 runs in three games) stating that the Yankees would destroy every other pitching staff they would soon face because they savaged Baltimore. That’s 16 home runs over three games and a record this season at Camden Yards.
Overall, the Yankees were 10-0 at Camden Yards and lead the season series 12-2 with four games remaining at Yankee Stadium. If I told you the Yankees would demolish the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians pitching staffs because of the way they dismantled the 38-76 Baltimore Orioles, would you believe me?
No. It’s a ridiculous argument.
John Means and Gabriel Ynoa are not Gerrit Cole and Jason Verlander. Steve Wilkerson is not Alex Bregman and nor is Chris Davis or Jose Ramirez. The quality of performance makes a difference
The same holds true for the Mets. Donald Trump talks about false news, the Mets’ ownership harbors false optimism because their GM Brodie Van Wagenen must be feeding them false news. The Mets are not a 19-6 team. Their previous record before this run, 40-50, is more who they are.
It’s wait till next year, again.
Looking Ahead
The combined record of the Mets’ upcoming opponents through the end of the season, beginning tonight against the Washington Nationals, is 198-76, or a hefty .617 winning percentage.
All of which means the exemplary record the Mets forged against their last six opponents and their 26-67 record—that equated to a .388 winning percentage—should make for a more Herculean task, given the collective winning percentage of the coming 16 teams.
The Mets will face four losing squads and 12 teams over .500. That means they’ll play 47 games against 16 teams. Three per team, on average.
Ouch—Look Whose Waiting in the Wings
The Mets face the Braves three times, the National twice, the Phillies twice and, outside their division, the Indians twice. That’s approximately 27 games against good teams. Throw in the Los Angeles Dodgers and that’s about 30 of their 47 games.
If the Mets can play .685 baseball against these ten top teams (as they played against their recent six opponents and their .388 winning percentage), then I might believe they’re for real. We’re talking somewhere around 21-9. Pour water over me if that happens. I’ll gladly swallow any of my previously dubious columns about Brodie Van Wagenen and the Mets. I’ll recant every doubt I’ve expressed. However …
It’s wait till next year, again.
I don’t believe it. We’re about to return to the norm. And, once again, the Mets will fall apart. Real news. Not fake news.
It’s wait till next year, again.
And, once again, the Wilpons will pay for their Alice in Wonderland management of the Mets. Their old Brooklyn Dodgers’ yelp, Wait until next year, has gotten very old indeed.
