Gerrit Cole Leads Furious Free-Agent Frenzy
With players and owners more guarded during the previous few hot stove seasons, signings dragged out to the point where guys like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and David Price signed during spring training, while the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel didn’t sign until during the season. With this trend, it seemed players were more patient and GMs resisted impulse signings. However, this offseason, the top three free agents — Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon — signed just days after the Winter Meetings began. Why did the hot stove all of a sudden heat back up?
Discrepancy Between Teams
The Cubs and Astros showed you can rebuild by purging assets quickly and getting young all at once, even if it means being uncompetitive for several years. Other teams have adopted this approach, and, as a result, will not be signing big-names anytime soon. The Royals, Tigers, Mariners, Orioles and Marlins are rebuilding, and it’s obvious they won’t be competitive. Outside of the Tigers and their inability to move upside-down contracts, most bad teams have dealt valuable players to restock, making them pretty much easy wins for opposing teams. As a result, they aren’t in the market for quality free agents. When they sign players, most are end-of-career veterans or players signing cheaply because they still want to play and no contending team will give them a shot.
Premium on Pitching
In an era of analytics, hitters, while still dominant, aren’t as much of a premium because there are so many more hitters leveraging launch angles for power numbers. Take the Twins and Yankees. Each team had eight hitters with 20 home runs or more last season. The league home record was broken in three consecutive years, and this year it was broken with 3 1/2 weeks still left in the season.
Across the league, the random players hitting over 20 home runs has skyrocketed. Guys like Ketel Marte, Freddy Galvis and Michael Brantley, who have never been home-run guys in their careers, all hit over 20—elevating Marte and Brantley to MVP candidates and and All-Stars. Older hitters are less of a premium, especially in an era more reliant on home-grown talent, international pool money and draft picks. With more power hitters, there are less “good” pitchers, making ace-caliber guys like Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole more valuable. Even the 35-year-old Cole Hamels warranted $18 million from the Braves, despite being inconsistent in recent years. A number-three level pitcher, Zack Wheeler, got $23.6 average annual value. Those two factors prove pitchers are a premium now, more than ever before. Hence, the urgency to sign Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, both coming off great seasons, was stronger and faster than we’ve seen in recent years.
Big-Market Playoff Failures
With the Washington Nationals winning the World Series, we saw heavy favorites (Dodgers, Yankees and Astros) fall. Therefore, these teams were linked to free agents more than ever. Cole signed with the Yankees after a bidding war with the Angels and Dodgers, who ultimately didn’t want to give him the ninth year. In the Nationals’ quest to get in the playoffs in 2019, they needed one of the Braves or Phillies to disappoint, and they got their wish with the Phillies. However, similar to last offseason, the Phillies continue to remain aggressive, bringing in Wheeler for five years and $119 million and adding Didi Gregorius to boost an already potent offense. The Phillies continue to be aggressive after spending a ton last offseason on David Robertson, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto and, most famously, Harper.
After missing out on Cole, the Angels signed Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245 million contract, which is the same total contract Strasburg got from the Nationals. The Dodgers, who everyone expected to reach the World Series for the third consecutive year, have done little so far, but they continue to talk with unsigned pitchers, including Madison Bumgarner and re-signing Hyun-Jin Ryu. With the money they are willing to spend, the Dodgers definitely drive up the price for other teams, especially for Gerrit Cole’s nine-year deal. So, while the Dodgers haven’t struck gold yet, they are definitely driving the sense of urgency. Even if they end up striking out, they really don’t need much outside of bullpen support with the depth and versatility across that roster.
