Which Division Leaders Will Be Division Winners?
The Major League Baseball All-Star Game is easily the best of all major sports exhibition player showcases. It’s the only game played in very close approximation to regular-season games by including the concept of “defense” that the NBA and NFL both shy away from.
The MLB ASG (as the cool kids call it) also takes place in the middle of the season, so it allows a perfect break from the 162-game schedule for management and fans to take an honest look at where their teams stand.
The NFL Pro Bowl is after the season, and that’s no help. And the NBA has its superstar showcase more than two-thirds of the way through the season, but after the Trade Deadline. Who needs a break after trades are made? Get out on the court and make a playoff run!
Before the baseball season starts, there are all kinds of predictions about which teams will win each division, advance through the playoffs and make the World Series. There are a wide variety of predictive stats that help, but the teams still need to get out there and play the games.
So, let’s take advantage of this All-Star Game break and take a look at the division leaders to see which ones will hold onto their positions and which will fade—or even plummet. These are all teams that have done well, so far, and while it’s likely some will actually win their divisions, it’s almost impossible that all of today’s leaders will be there at the end. It’s baseball, and that means baseball things will happen. Winning streaks. Prolonged slumps. You know … baseball.
For anyone who has the stones to bet against any or all of the divisional leaders—if you’re some kind of contrarian who thinks each team will all suffer from “baseball things”—this tool will show what you’ll make when they all lose in a day’s worth of games. I’m thinking it’ll be high because they’re divisional leaders, they’re supposed to win!
But, again. It’s baseball.
AL West: Houston Astros 57-33
Many people picked the Astros to win their division and make it back to the World Series. They’ve got a healthy +91 run differential and an equally healthy 7.5 game lead in the West. Despite all that, they do seem to be struggling a bit. Their starting rotation hasn’t been as deep as they expected, and their offense has been stifled by injuries. But they’re getting healthy, and they have a robust farm system to acquire a starting pitcher before the deadline. They should have what it takes to hold off the Athletics’ inevitable second-half winning streak.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers 60-32
Best team in baseball right now. And it’s no fluke. They’ve been to the World Series the last two years, and this might actually be their best team. Cody Bellinger is the NL MVP so far, and Hyun Jin-Ryu will win the Cy Young if he stays healthy. Not everything has gone easy for the Dodgers. The Joe Kelly signing has been a disaster. Rich Hill got his annual injury sooner than expected. Starters Corey Seager and A.J. Pollock have been on the shelf. However, it’s a weak division and the organization is just so deep it can easily fill any cracks—whether from earthquakes or otherwise.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs 47-43
This is the most competitive division in the sport right now and seems to be the only one with no teams “building for the future.” First and last place are separated by 4.5 games and any one of these teams could win the division or sneak into the wild card. The Cubs had a nice run to get into first place, but before and after has been a struggle. They score runs, but then the pitching fails them. The pitching is solid, but the offense doesn’t show up. Adding Craig Kimbrel is a nice bullpen boost, but can a team with no real starting ace hold off all these teams? They have a half-game lead over the Brewers, and the Cubs will need another nice run to separate themselves from the pack.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins 56-33
The Twins are the surprise team of 2019 and, digging deeper into their statistics, it seems like this success is sustainable. They have a +116 run differential and have been crushing home runs with the best of them in the Juiced Ball Era. The pitching has been strong, but they seem due for some regression there. This division was supposed to be a cakewalk for the Indians, but injuries and underperformance have held them back. But watch out, Twins, the Indians are closing the gap.
NL East: Atlanta Braves 54-37
At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Washington Nationals were the best team in this division. And here at the midpoint, it looks like the best team in this division is the Washington Nationals. The Braves have a six-game lead and seem to be talented enough to hold off the Nationals, while the Phillies implode. The Atlanta offense is potent, but their starting pitching and relief pitching have been a jumble. Bringing in Dallas Keuchel to fortify the rotation was good, but it’s weird to watch a team with the potential to make a playoff run be so conservative in its front office activity.
AL East: New York Yankees 57-31
This is the best team in the best division in the American League. There’s some smoke and mirrors here. They just happened to have a very easy schedule while dealing with an insane amount of injuries. Brian Cashman has stacked the team with talent—on offense anyway. And he has a farm system full of attractive pieces to land a starting pitcher (or two). Sometimes, a team just seems fated to win its division—like the Red Sox last year—and the Yankees have that look about them this year.
