Why Doesn’t Anyone Want Cy Young Winner Dallas Keuchel?
Pitchers and catchers reported for Spring Training a couple weeks ago. We’re less than a month from the start of the season. The off-season is usually over by now. But Dallas Keuchel, one of baseball’s best free agent starting pitchers, still doesn’t have a home.
Mega-stars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper finally got their mega-contracts. Those are free agency anomalies – superstars looking for big contracts to reward their talent and their youth.
The only free agent pitcher one could say was better than Keuchel this off-season is Patrick Corbin. He signed with the Nationals a month ago for six years and $160 million. And the Nationals weren’t the only team in on him. The Phillies and Yankees were also in the mix.
As the old saying goes: Timing is everything. It’s not just that Keuchel entered free agency after a modest spike in his ERA. He also had a 12% in strikeouts. If you’re watching the game of baseball, one thing that is certain is that teams love their pitchers that get strikeouts.
Canon-armed hurlers are throwing 100 mph and getting strikeouts at a historic pace. Then factor in that most batters have adjusted their launch angles and are swinging for the fences. Thus resulting in more strikeouts.
So, Keuchel’s decreased strikeout total looks like trouble. Then you mix in his increased hard-hit percentage and his increased fly ball rate. He “seems” like a gamble. But even with all those negatives, he still put the second-best pitcher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in his career.
As a matter of fact, since 2014 Keuchel has never been lower than 2.4 WAR and in his Cy Young Award season he had 5.9 WAR. Steady production, rarely injured and championship experience.
So, what’s the problem, baseball teams? Not every pitcher has to strike out everyone. As Crash Davis said in Bull Durham, “Don’t try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they’re fascist. Throw some ground balls – it’s more democratic.”
This late into the process, it starts to seem like maybe the free agent won’t sign anywhere – like Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales from years ago. Or maybe he’ll get stymied with a Mike Moustakas one-year deal and try again next off-season. With so many teams “rebuilding” this coming season, there are few places that feel like a good fit for Keuchel to land.
The Phillies
The good news for Keuchel is that last year Jake Arrieta (another former Cy Young winner) didn’t sign with the Phillies until March 11th or so. The bad news is that Arrieta’s numbers last season were similar to Keuchel’s and it’s hard to imagine the Phillies wanting to go with double-barrell soft-tossing aces.
The Astros
A return to Houston could work. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are both free agents after the year and the team already lost Charlie Morton to the Rays. Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like if this was going to happen, it would have happened already.
The Twins
Minnesota has money to spend and they have been spending some of it. Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez both seem like additions a team would make if they wanted to make a little playoff run. Okay, so sign Keuchel and maybe give Craig Kimbrel a job.
The Padres
I’m not saying this is the best fit, but they already signed Machado and they will need some veteran leadership in the rotation. Though they signed Eric Hosmer for his leadership last season and that hasn’t worked out.
The Braves
At some point you have to spend some money to win more games. The Atlanta system is stocked with pitching prospects but right now they’re mostly just prospects. Keuchel is found gold. His particular set of skills match up perfectly with a yoiung Braves team that just saw their NL East competition sign Bryce Harper.
