What Is Happening with Craig Kimbrel?
This baseball offseason was supposed to be the record-setting cash grab and talent redistribution that only comes around once a decade. Yet here we all are, a few days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to camps, and we still don’t know where superstars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will land.
Speaking of pitchers, lost in all the hoopla around these generational talents has been the mystery of where Craig Kimbrel will pitch next year. He was—and still is—the best relief pitcher on the market, and he still doesn’t have a contract.
Free agents like Zack Britton, David Robertson, Andrew Miller and Adam Ottavino have all signed multi-year deals. All of these guys are not as good as Kimbrel, who has spent almost his entire career as one of the best relief pitchers in the game.
Kimbrel just helped pitch his team, the Boston Red Sox, to their best regular season record and another championship—ending the nearly two-year drought of New England area team championships. Despite being shaky in the playoffs, Kimbrel didn’t blow any saves; but when the World Series victory was on the line, manager Alex Cora went with starting pitcher Chris Sale to close out the game.
In offseasons past, we’d see a player like Kimbrel flirt with a bunch of teams looking to add a premier closer, and then ultimately he’d sign with the Red Sox and say that he never really wanted to sign anywhere else.
The Red Sox claim they don’t have any money for relievers. Of course this isn’t entirely true; all of these teams could spend more than they do. Fine. They don’t want to spend anymore money. Fair enough. It’s not like they’ve been pinching pennies. They already have the highest payroll in the league.
Maybe they just don’t want to throw $60-80 million at a relief pitcher. Relievers are probably the most volatile commodity in baseball. This year’s Blake Treinen could be last year’s Mark Melancon. The Giants locked up Melancon for four years and $62 million. Yes, Mark Melancon. I’m not saying this is all his fault, but maybe teams see that contracts like this just carry too much risk.
A couple offseasons ago, in addition to Melancon, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen also received mega-paydays in the $80-million range. As good as both of them have been, their walk-rates are climbing and their strikeout rates are dropping. Would any team sign any one of these guys now at those prices?
With a third of the league “rebuilding” (aka, tanking), there isn’t as much demand for high-end closers. Also, while Kimbrel was dominant through most of the season, his walk rate went up and his strikeout rate went down. Sound familiar?
On the bright side, Kimbrel is still an extremely valuable asset coming out of the bullpen, and if he can keep things going for a while longer without his skills falling apart, he is on a path toward the Hall of Fame.
So, let’s do this future Hall of Famer a favor and help him find a home. Any team that signs him needs to be in near-term contention. He must return value on the front-end of his contract in case he goes Melancon on his team.
One team that would be great for Kimbrel is the Rays. But can you even imagine a universe where Tampa Bay spends more than $1.50 on a closer?
Philadelphia
The Phillies already signed Robertson and they have the enigmatic Seranthony Dominguez, but this team just traded for J.T. Realmuto and ownership said they were going to spend “stupid money” this off-season. $50 million for three years of Kimbrel doesn’t sound that stupid to me.
Minnesota
The Twins have a pretty strong offense and defense. The only thing really stopping them from being a contender is their pitching. Okay, so let’s get Kimbrel in there to close games and maybe throw $60 million at Dallas Keuchel. Now you’ve got yourself a stew!
St. Louis
In theory, the combination of Jordan Hicks and the recently signed Andrew Miller should be a good back-of-the-bullpen combo. “Good” is nice. But I thought St. Louis wanted to win the World Series. Kimbrel, Hicks and Miller is a top five bullpen that will crush the hopes and dreams of their opponents.
Atlanta
The Braves have a good bullpen, but are you telling me that with the game on the line, they want to roll Arodys Vizcaino out to the mound? Kimbrel would be coming home to where his greatness all started and the Braves have the money since they cheaped out on their outfield by re-signing Nick Markakis.
Red Sox
I mean, this is where he should be, right? The bullpen was the team’s one weakness during the regular season last year, and they’ve already lost Joe Kelly. Find the money, Boston. You’re the world champs. Stop embarrassing yourselves.
