Ramon Laureano and Craig Kimbrel: Performance Versus Value
Into the Teeth of the Shift
Too many articles have been written in the sporting press recently about the folly of Craig Kimbrel’s current lack of employment. Seems some writers believe Kimbrel still offers top-notch performance for the value he brings to the mound. As if he could pitch for any team and clean up the mess in a shaky bullpen. Maybe he can? But performance versus value in baseball, more than likely, indicates he cannot.
Craig Kimbrel was ineffective at times for Boston last year, downright shaky at times, and obviously lost the trust of Alex Cora during the postseason when he was barely called into tight situations. Now 31, Kimbrel is clearly on the way down. At least from my vantage point.
Boston knows him well and passed on him. With good reason. Can he still pitch in the majors? Probably. But supposedly he and his agent are still holding out for a six-year deal. He earned $13 million last season. Basic multiplication seems to indicate Kimbrel might want six years at $13 million, which equals a $78 million contract. Is he worth $13 million a season times six?
No.
Is he worth $5 million a season times two? More than likely, yes. But will Kimbrel accept a $10 million figure? It’s a purely fictional number I’ve conjured up. Question is, what number would Kimbrel accept? Who knows? Were he flexible, he’d probably be on a major league roster now.
But Craig Kimbrel is yet another example of the dissociation between performance and value in baseball. His salary last season has no relationship to his current metric. In the real world, Kimbrel might have a difficult time securing an offer for his previous salary. He might even have to accept less to find an analogous career choice.
But the ethos in baseball these days is that hardly any players are forced to take a salary cut. The days of Branch Rickey offering a batting champion a pay cut are the stuff of baseball legend. Players had no choice but to accept the judgement of men running the team, like Mr. Rickey, as he was called by the players. The great man sitting players down after a good year and offering them a pay cut. Take it or leave it. Or, go drive a truck. That was baseball 75 years ago.
Today, players have a choice when contracts expire. They don’t have to accept an offer. They can wait and expect a team will come calling at the first sign of trouble. Perhaps no general managers feel Kimbrel is worth a six-year contract, no matter the price. And like many hitters unwilling to hit the ball the other way, Kimbrel is stubbornly hitting the ball into the teeth of the shift. Unwilling to take the cheap hit to right. Unwilling to work for less, whatever less is. Unwilling to accept the analytical premise of performance and value in baseball.
I’m not a Craig Kimbrel fan, but for those who do admire his talent, he’s denying them the chance to see him dominate hitters, if he can still do that. There’s a place in the game for him, if he’s willing to compromise.
But baseball is full of players who refuse to compromise. And for those whose skills have atrophied, they’re the players on the outside looking in. Hasn’t someone told Kimbrel it would be better to take a one-year $5 million deal rather than pouting at home. After all, as he nears retirement, how many opportunities are there for him to earn $5 million or even $1 million outside baseball? Probably not many.
But Ramon Laureano? Wow!
An observation. I watched the Red Sox go 2-6 on their West Coast road trip so far. That’s 1-3 against Oakland. One of the big reasons Oakland dominated Boston was the surreal contributions of their diminutive center fielder Ramon Laureano, who was simply spectacular. Extraordinary. Magnificent. Stupendous. Mind-blowing amazing. Gold Glove amazing. All-Star amazing. And I’m not exaggerating.
Laureano threw out three Red Sox on the base paths during the series, including Mookie Betts at third base in the ninth inning of Thursday’s 7-3 defeat, and Xander Bogaerts twice. Once at third base, after Bogaerts just missed a home run in the ninth inning of game two Tuesday night, desperately motoring around the bases to third base where Laureano’s throw barely beat him in and kept Oakland in the lead 1-0. And the other time Laureano threw Bogaerts out at home plate in the first game. Each throw came at a crucial moment. Each forced two of Boston’s speediest baserunners back to the bench.
It’s tough to say which play was best. Although, if pushed, I would say the ball Bogaerts hit off the right-centerfield wall that barely missed going out of the park for a game-tying home run was a surreal play. Pure excitement.
The ball was smoked off the wall, exploded away from Laureano toward the infield, and Laureano ran it down, and in one balletic motion reared back, sprung forward and the ball rocketed out of his hands so fast that, when it reached third base, it overcame Bogaerts who was about to slide into bag. One bounce into Matt Chapman’s glove, a quick swipe tag, and Bogaerts (and Boston) were through for the night. It could be the finest defensive play of the season. It was that good.
Add to Laureano’s aura, he homered in game three off Nathan Eovaldi, putting a charge into a hanging curveball, middle-up, banging it over the centerfield wall, putting Oakland ahead 3-0 at the time. But Boston would come back and win that game 6-3.
Talk about baseball at its best, these games were electric excitement. Even the 1-0 Oakland victory was gripping, especially the Bogaerts/Laureano play in the top of the ninth inning. Too bad the series had to end.
MLB’s Finest 2-6 Team
There’s no doubt Boston is the finest 2-6 team I’ve seen in a while. Though why Boston’s starting pitching has been so disappointing is unclear. I’d love to hear pitching coach Dana LeVangie’s explanation. What is clear: Boston has not missed Craig Kimbrel to this point. Perhaps Dave Dombroski does know what he’s doing, after all.
Another aside. Nathan Eovaldi reminds me of his inconsistent ways that drove the Yankees crazy the year he was with them. Of course, it’s very early, but this Eovaldi was not the same pitcher who single-handedly broke the Dodgers spirit. Who made all of Los Angeles blue. Hey, at least the Dodgers stole their other nemesis from Boston, Joe Kelly.
