Red Sox Postseason Projections Drop After Woeful Start
Listen to the Red Sox players. The manager. Cliches flow. Groundless excuses whirling across empty spaces. Homilies about unwanted consequences. More soliloquies about the promises of the next game ahead.
And just as baseball can be redemptive, it can be punishing, game after game. Especially during losing streaks. The same questions and doubts raise their heads like ogres stalking their victims after the final out of a loss. The reporters in the clubhouse. The damning questions about a dropped ball. A grounder through the legs. A called strike three. The humiliation of explaining a mental mistake. After all, this was a championship team only five short months ago.
Otherworldly Quality of Nine Games
Otherworldly? Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweeted that: Nine Games In, Red Sox Still Not Ready to Go. He paints a grisly portrait of the Boston starting staff. An 0-7 record and a 9.60 ERA (that’s a run an inning) through the first nine games. Add to that a WHIP of 2.06 (or an average of two baserunners every inning), which is why the ERA is so high and the record is what it is. Throw in 16 home runs allowed, and that 2.06 WHIP translates into too many three run home runs.
So what has happened to the Boston Red Sox? Futility? Bad luck? Could it be their vaunted pitching staff has forgotten how to throw the right mix of pitches to get hitters out? Or is it possible they miss throwing to Sandy Leon, last year’s catcher?
No doubt about it, the 2-8 start was the worst since 2011 when they began 2-10. So they only need look back eight years ago to see such futility. Despite that inept beginning to their season in 2011, they still ended the season 92-70 but failed to make the postseason by just one game. So all is not lost. This may be the worst team in baseball today (April 6, 2019), but no one would take the bet that they’ll be the worst team in baseball after 162 games in October. I hope not, I predicted they would make the World Series again. Oops!
But, as the AP titled their reporting about the Red Sox earlier Saturday, It’s Really Getting Ugly for the Red Sox. That’s true. But there are still 153 games left to right the ship. Boston’s next port of call, .500.
Or, as the Boston Herald reported in their recap of the other evening’s game, Rick Porcello Lit Up, Red Sox Frustration Boils Over in 15-8 Loss.
An undeniable blemish on the Red Sox first nine games is their minus-26 run differential. ESPN reports this is the second-worst differential ever for a defending World Series champion through nine games. They report that the Baltimore Orioles were minus-27 at the same point in the 1984 season. Definitely otherworldly.
On the Bright Side?
As badly as Boston has played, they did not match the Chicago Cubs futility the other night against the Atlanta Braves when the Cubs lost 8-0 and committed six errors in the fiasco. Given the statistical portraits of every major league baseball game archived in cyberspace, this particular combination of incompetence has not happened since the Philadelphia Phillies succumbed to its charms 34 years ago in 1985. To further reinforce the unusual nature of a shutout with six errors, the Cubs performance was only the fifth reprise of it the past 50 years. So the fans in Atlanta might not have known it, but they were treated to an unusual performance last week: a major league team playing like a Little League team for one night.
Questions?
Back to the Red Sox, the question around them is, why? What’s changed?
There are suggestions the problem may lie in the way the Red Sox coddled their pitchers this spring, justifiably worried about the stress all those arms were put through this past championship postseason. Some astute observers believe the Sox did not want to push their charges in spring training, so the Red Sox did not let their starters throw as many exhibition game innings as they had last year. Thinking that would keep them stronger and ready to start the season fresh.
Wrong.
Take a step back, this issue of coddling could be viewed through the prism of all pitching the past 40 years. As MLB executives paid more and more attention to their expensive investments and protected them from the hard work of pitching, the endless innings and repetitions of fastballs and breaking pitches, they have weakened the product. So, pitchers breakdown in ways today that did not happen 40 years ago.
Just consider the curse of Tommy John surgery in baseball.
Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wrote this past Monday (April 1, 2019) that the Red Sox protected their pitchers during spring training. It makes sense, he argued, the gang of five starters will earn $87.3 million this season. A lot of money to protect.
Meanwhile it was widely reported in the press that Rick Porcello was actively pining for a contract extension during spring training. And a few weeks later the Red Sox rewarded Chris Sale with a five-year extension. Not Porcello.
So, was Porcello seething about his start the other night in Arizona when he flung a barrel of Gatorade against the dugout wall in the bottom of the fifth inning, scattering teammates, after he was removed from the game? Or could he already envision his next multiyear, multi-million dollar contract spilling all over the dugout floor?
These questions about the Red Sox preparation of their pitchers in spring training, or lack thereof, are being asked as writers try to piece together how the Red Sox could possibly be pitching so ineptly. Was there too much rest? Not enough preparation?
Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe has written that Sale, David Price and Porcello combined for 42⅔ spring innings in 2018 compared to 27⅔ this year. Other observations include the use of live batting practice sessions and pitching in minor league games to build up arm strength, as opposed to facing major league hitters in exhibition games. So, there are differences in preparation and intensity between the past two spring trainings.
Rest of the Season
From a prediction standpoint, fivethirtyeight.com has downgraded their assessment of the future performance of the Red Sox based on their games the first week of the season through April 6. FiveThirtyEight predicts Boston’s season record will fall from 93-69 to 88-74. Correspondingly, their chances of making the playoffs has dipped from 71 to 53 percent. And their chances of winning the World Series from nine to six percent.
FanGraphs also cut the Red Sox’ odds of winning the American League East by approximately seven percentage points since Opening Day.
So, pundits have taken notice, and just because Alex Cora remains calm about the 2-8 start, does not mean the experts are not worried. Peter Abraham’s point was given the financial commitment to five starting pitchers this season ($87.3 million), and the dearth of successful pitching choices available now, Boston has little choice but to remain calm, and hope. But, five games below .500 is a mound to climb.
Now, Boston is five games under .500 after they defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 1-0 in the final game of their 11 game road trip. Hector Velasquez capably pitched the first three innings of the game, a game that Boston competed with skill and alacrity. After a seventh inning Mitch Moreland solo blast over the right field wall Boston grabbed the lead, and their relief pitchers held Arizona scoreless the rest of the way. Ryan Brasier pitched an effective ninth inning.
One imagines Alex Cora, and Dave Dombroski who was along on the trip, breathed easier after the game. The Red Sox looked like the Red Sox, finally. On their way back to Fenway Park for the home opener on Tuesday, their baseball lives must seems a bit brighter, a bit more hopeful. The Boston Red Sox will win more games this year. This can now be said with greater assurance. They’ve already made it to three.
