Keep Your Eyes on the Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have not lost very many games in the second half of the season. As a matter of fact, they have the fourth best record in the American League since the All-Star break (see chart below).

They are 7-3 over the last ten games. Suddenly the wild card is not out of reach.

At the break, Business Insider ranked Tampa Bay 18th on their power ranking of 30 teams, Oakland was ranked 12th, and Seattle was ranked 5th. As far as chances to make the postseason at that time, Tampa Bay was given an 8% chance, Oakland a 36% chance, and Seattle a 52% chance.

Six weeks later the odds have changed. Oakland is the second wild card and Seattle, which had held the second wild card is now 5.5 games behind.

Since the All-Star Break, the won-lost record through September 6th of the six American League teams in the playoff hunt is as follows:

Teams	Wins	Losses
Boston	32	14
Oakland	29	16
Cleveland	29	17
Tampa Bay	26	17
New York	26	20
Houston	24	18
Seattle	20	24

As of Thursday night, Tampa is only two and a half games behind Seattle. And eight games behind Oakland.

Their schedule is somewhat difficult because they still have to face three above .500 teams (the Indians, the A’s and the Yankees). But then they get to face the hapless Orioles, Rangers and Blue Jays on the road—finishing the season with Toronto at home.

The three games against the A’s in Oakland on the 14 to 16th of September should be a tight, bullpen series. It’s conceivable Tampa could only be a few games behind Oakland after the series is over—if they continue rolling.

So, what’s in store for Tampa these next 20 or so games?

Excitement. Unpredictability. And perhaps a pot of gold at the end. A one-game playoff at Yankee Stadium against the Yankees (assuming the Yankees hold onto the first wild card). This scenario should scare the Yankees because Tampa Bay has played them very tough this season. Tampa Bay has a real chance to win a wild card game against the Yankees and the Yankees know it. Blake Snell who’s had a breakout season and their relief starters by committee have hurt the Yankees this season.

If Major League Baseball has publicized the high-stakes conclusion of this season, I haven’t noticed it. If this were the NFL, the games and teams would be plastered all over the back pages of the newspapers and hyped on ESPN and FOX (which have financial stakes in the success of the NFL). So, the more people who watch, the more those networks earn. This is true of Major League Baseball as well, but the economics are different, and the television commitment is not as complete. ESPN and FOX eat, breathe and sleep NFL football—not baseball.

I read the New York papers daily and I’ve seen almost nothing on the exciting wild card races, other than who the Yankees will play and whether the Yankees can still catch Boston.

The answer is NO.

There’s next to nothing about Oakland, and nothing about Tampa Bay, which is winning almost every game, when they had been expected to play more like Baltimore, than a first division team. But Tampa Bay’s the latest example of a small market team reinventing the wheel

Just who is on Tampa Bay? And Oakland?

Both teams are the no-names of major league baseball. None of the players on these teams are household names. Only super fans will know whose on each team. So, who is Blake Treinen? And Jose Alvarado? Sergio Romo? Or Adam Kolarek?

The first name is the closer of the Oakland A’s. The latter three names are part of the bullpen by committee that Tampa Bay employs in the ninth inning to close games. They could, as easily, and probably have been, among the Tampa Bay starters by committee.

The real stars of these teams are their General Managers. The men who move the pieces around and make sure that each squad has as much ammunition as possible (within available financial constraints) to not only find new pieces to strengthen the roster, but more importantly, pieces that give each club the best chance to win.

Erik Neander is the Senior VP of Baseball Operations and GM of the Tampa Bay Rays. His counterpart on Oakland is David Frost. They are the men at the chessboard deciding which pieces should be moved, and why.

Just as Andrew Friedman and Billy Beane used to pull the strings for Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, the new GMs are exhibiting a fearless desire to win, to use their resources creatively, and to outthink the management of the teams they are competing against. While the Yankees have looked lifeless more often than not over the second half of the season, despite Brian Cashman’s moves (some of which have worked), Oakland and Tampa Bay have continued to play energized, supercharged baseball. Hungry baseball. These teams are desperate to prove they belong in the elite of major league baseball.

The Red Sox have maintained their torrid pace due to a full deck of talent on the field and shrewd player additions that bolstered their strengths. And manipulating the levers behind the scenes for Boston is Dave Dombroski, who knows a thing or two. One key player, Dustin Pedroia, has missed virtually the entire season. But Boston finally found a player to plug second base capably: the aging, but still effective, Ian Kinsler.

So, how will Tampa Bay cook the rest of the season? Their play could overheat the wild card race and if they keep on winning at the expense of the teams they’ll soon face, they may upend the fortunes of a few teams who feel they’re safely in the playoffs right now. Their every win puts pressure on the teams directly ahead of them.

Seattle’s feeling Tampa’s boil, which may explain why Seattle’s fallen apart recently, why discord has visited their clubhouse, and why Tampa Bay is poised to pass Seattle in the wild card standings.

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