DJ LeMahieu vs. Bryce Harper: How to Choose a Free Agent
About 120 games into the Yankees season, the biggest question I ask myself almost every game is why the Colorado Rockies allowed DJ LeMahieu to declare free agency. Why didn’t they offer him a contract? Or at least make him a Qualifying Offer?
Not that he would have been the difference between the 53-65 Colorado Rockies (25 games behind the Dodgers, and nine games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild card) making the postseason or not, but he would have made them a better team.
After all, DJ LeMahieu’s currently playing at a 4.9 WAR and his OPS+ is 140 (meaning he’s 40 percent better than the average major leaguer; a level considered All-Star quality performance).
So, What Gives?
What gives is LeMahieu is playing in his age 30 season, and after a brilliant 2016 season, his 2017 and 2018 seasons in Colorado were unspectacular.
LeMahieu’s 2016 season featured a WAR of 5.3 and an OPS+ of 128. In short, a very good season. While his 2018 numbers were a WAR of 3.0 and an OPS+ of 87. Not so good.
Based on his numbers, Colorado declined to put even a Qualifying Offer on the table after the 2018 campaign. The Yankees, on the other hand, accepted Colorado’s declination and invited LeMahieu to play in New York. Two years at $24 million, which he accepted.
Based on the numbers of the last few seasons, it seems playing in a competitive environment for a good team has rejuvenated LeMahieu. Because he seems to be doing everything well, once again.
He plays first, second and third bases with gold-glove consistency. Hits the ball to all fields. With power. Yet he settles for singles when the situation calls for it. That’s probably why he’s been at the top of the list of hitters producing with runners in scoring position, hitting over .400 in those situations so far this season.
The effect is there seems to be no way to defend him consistently. He’s just a strong hitter who takes whatever a pitcher gives him and converts it into offense. And since he does not strike out often (65 strikeouts and 34 walks in 475 plate appearances), even his outs have been productive.
Add 18 homers and 80 RBI to LeMahieu’s roster of accomplishments and it’s clear the Yankees made a shrewd judgment. It’s clear that there is some logic in the way free agents are chosen.
Pressures of Choosing a Free Agent
Admittedly, baseball is not the real world. It’s a recreational sport. The national pastime of America. Despite this, inside the game, teams make choices. They vote with their checkbooks in what is essentially a silent auction for top players. Since the demise of the Reserve Clause in 1975, this auction has occurred after every baseball season.
The free agency process used to hinge on emotional judgments made by owners who had to purchase the contract of a Bobby Grich or Bobby Bonilla, no matter how overpriced they were.
Whereas today, player evaluations are based on performance metrics that reveal the true nature of a players’ performance relative to others, and in isolation. So, the Yankees saw something in DJ LeMahieu, just as the Phillies and Padres saw something in the free agents they signed. But what is the logic behind the way these free agents were chosen?
What the Yankees purchased (to this point) is LeMahieu’s 4.7 WAR for $12 million. In contrast, the two big free agents this past offseason have both disappointed.
The Phillies—who spent $11.5 million (this season, increasing to $27.5 million next season and beyond for 11 years) for Bryce Harper’s 1.8 WAR—already are quietly grumbling that they expect Harper to produce (meaning hit more home runs and drive home more runners in clutch, game-winning situations). For the boatload of money the Phillies committed to Harper, they expect him to lead them into the promised land of the playoffs. They are now two games out of the second wild-card slot.
Meanwhile, the Padres spent $12 million (this season, upping the salary to $32 million next season and for nine more years, unless there’s an opt-out) for Manny Machado’s 2.7 WAR. Can Machado do enough to propel San Diego into the second wild-card position? San Diego is currently 6.5 games behind. So, they have their work cut out for them.
Sold!
After the Phillies closed the Bryce Harper deal earlier this year, sheer excitement blossomed in Philadelphia. Only weeks after Harper’s signing, fans were already selling bootlegged Bryce Harper tee shirts on the streets of Philly on the cheap. Stories were written. Wild predictions of World Series triumphs were spun, and, of course, expectations were off the chart.
The only issue was the long, expensive contract and the question of whether Harper could live up to it.
Of course, reality mattered, but ownership wanted to win. Why ownership thought Harper would do for Philadelphia what he did not do for the Washington Nationals, continues to baffle me.
Why pay so much for so little? Had Philadelphia paid Harper $30 million for three or four years, the deal might have been worth it for both sides. If Harper proved himself he could dip his toe back into free agency at age 30, and still sign another lucrative long term deal. But that’s not what happened.
Instead Harper is already wearing out his welcome. Goodwill is ebbing. Articles are being penned about his season, with headlines like, Bryce Harper’s Good, Bad and Ugly All Already on Full Display in 2019.
Forbes wrote, Bryce Harper Is Giving The Phillies Exactly What They Paid For—And That’s An Issue.
While The Washington Post opined, Bryce Harper’s offensive numbers are trending down and there’s real reason for concern.
And it’s only the first season of 12 contractually obligated baseball seasons for the Phillies. As such, the Harper contract makes DJ LeMahieu’s contract look better and better everyday.
I never understood the pressure to pay any free agent $30 million a season. No baseball player is worth that number. Even for a year or two. Even winning players are not that valuable.
Twelve million is a lot of money for any worker to live comfortably on. For one year, or two. And it comes without the pressure of producing like a $30 million a year player under the bright glare of public scrutiny. The Yankees, after tendering so many bad contracts over the years, seem to have learned this lesson.
When will the rest of MLB learn their lessons? Is there a logic to the way free agents are chosen?
