Why We Love Power Pitchers
Heat. Smoke. Velocity. Stuff. Gas. Cheese.
I’m sure there are other words to describe our beloved “fireballers.” Ah-ha! I knew I’d find another one. Pitchers who throw at high speeds are treated like fine china [Insert Stephen Strasburg 2012 postseason dig]. I’m guilty of falling victim to the allure of a 98-mph fastball, regardless of its location. We love it, and, frankly, we’d like to see more of it. Major League Baseball has created a league where if a pitcher doesn’t break 90 mph with his fastball, he’s considered a “finesse” pitcher or a “soft-tosser” if left-handed. (More equality for lefties!) We love strikeouts, especially when a power pitcher blows a fastball by a hitter. But, why?
Matt Harvey was good in 2015. He’s not good anymore. Why do the Mets keep giving him second chances? Answer: because he throws hard … and they’re stuck with his $5.6 million salary until he hits free agency at the end of this year. Power pitchers are like attractive women with bad personalities.
However, it’s not entirely our fault. After reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Nobel Prize-winning psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, I began to understand why this happens. It shows how you can overcome cognitive bias, but in order to do so, you have to understand which one of your “thought systems” is making that decision for you. He explains that each human being has essentially two modes of thought.
System 1– fast, instinctive and emotional (gut feeling)
System 2– slower, more logical (critical thinking)
Theo Epstein is a great example of extensive System 2 thinking. It’s well known he was one of the early pioneers of implementing sabermetrics into the front office, but what’s not often discussed is his extensive mental scouting and character analysis.
When Epstein was with the Red Sox, he partnered with a Cambridge-based company called NeuroScouting back in 2010. There, he had his players test their mental skills by essentially playing a video game analyzing their inhibitory control. An example would be, could they recognize the spin of a curveball that was going to be out of the strike zone and check their swing? Drafting Mookie Betts was a bi-product of this analysis, as he scored nearly 100% on every test, which prompted the Red Sox to move him up higher on their draft board. With the Chicago Cubs, Epstein made all of his scouts write an essay on each player to make their case on why the team should draft that player. Part of this essay not only included advanced statistics and regression theory, but also the player’s character. Each scout conducted interviews with the player’s teachers, coaches, teammates, friends, girlfriend, and ex-girlfriends (perhaps most important). This type of essay, written by one of the Cubs top scouts, was one of the biggest reasons why the Cubs wanted Kyle Hendricks (39th round Amateur Draft pick) in the Ryan Dempster trade back in 2012.
Obviously, most teams do similar analysis, but perhaps not enough. The “stuff” activates their System 1. Here are a two very different outcomes from the two modes of thought.
System 1: Mark Appel (1st pick overall in the 2013 MLB Draft)
Power pitcher Mark Appel was taken number one overall by the Houston Astros in the 2013 MLB Draft, only to retire from baseball five years later without throwing a single pitch in the major leagues. Here’s the draft report on Appel from 2013, courtesy of Sporting News:
“Appel has ace stuff, though. A mid-90s fastball and command of his secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, make him the most polished pitcher in this draft. In his senior year at Stanford, Appel showed a willingness to pitch aggressively (i.e. inside) and scouts like that he can keep his velocity deep into games.”
However, an early 2013 draft report from Fangraphs writer, Kyle Boddy, posed a key question in regards the power pitcher’s makeup—
“If you have a 96-98 mph heater but can’t reliably command it, do you really have it at all?”
Appel did have a few injuries, but was never able to find success while in the minor leagues posting a career 5.06 ERA along with a 1.52 WHIP, according to Baseball Reference.
System 2: Mark Buehrle (38th round pick of the 1998 Amateur Draft)
A finesse lefty (we’re doing it, guys!) from St. Charles, Missouri. In his 15-year career, Mark Buehrle won 214 games with a career ERA of 3.81 in the American League. He accomplished this while consistently throwing in the mid 80s with a slightly above-average cutter and change-up. Oh, yeah, he also threw a no-hitter, a perfect game and was the ace on the 2005 Chicago White Sox championship team. Here’s a revisited analysis of Buehrle coming out of the minor leagues, courtesy of this 2013 SB Nation piece:
“I remember thinking that Buehrle was a fluke of some kind and that in the long run he would be an average pitcher, at best. He didn’t throw that hard, and his strikeout rate was very low. Usually, even a successful finesse pitcher still has a decent strikeout rate. I was convinced that the hitters would eventually catch up with him and figure out how to beat him.
They never did.”
I want to make it clear that I’m not demonizing power pitchers, I’m simply suggesting that if you find yourself becoming enamored with a guy who consistently throws in the mid-90s, as we usually do, dive a little deeper into his BABIP, FIP, mental skills and character.
You might discover something much more interesting.
