Foul Territory Experts Offer Opening Day Bold Predictions
The Astros’ clincher over the Dodgers in Game Seven of an epic World Series seems like a lifetime ago. Especially after an unusual “Tepid Stove League” saw bullpen arms hit the jackpot, free agents twiddle their thumbs, the Marlins dismantle (again), the Yankees and Red Sox raise the bar, and the Brew Crew become relevant.
But the offseason hubbub is in the rearview mirror now— it’s Opening Day, and all is right in the world again.
Since everyone else is doing it, the Foul Territory staff begged me to pull together a “Bold Predictions” compilation piece, so I obliged. For starters, let me kick off this forecasting folly with a few boldies of my own.
Lewis Brinson wins the NL Rookie of the Year. As a Marlins fan, I’m thrilled about two things heading into 2018: No more Jeffrey Loria and Derek Jeter blowing up the team to rebuild the worst farm system in baseball. The prize jewel of the wheeling and dealing that sent Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna packing: Lewis Brinson, who becomes the instant face of the franchise for his hometown Marlins. The 23-year-old Brinson had two cups of coffee with the Brewers last year and didn’t exactly light it up, but Baseball America’s #18 top prospect flat out dominated Triple-A in 107 games, batting .349/.409/.574 with 18 homers and 18 steals.
Home runs will be harder to come by in 2018. Say what? After a big increase in dingers last season, which saw league-wide home runs jump from 5,610 in 2016 to 6,105 in 2017, expect the trend to reverse for one simple reason: launch angle kryptonite. While hitters have made adjustments in recent years to get a little more loft in their swings, I believe pitchers will work the strike zone in more of a north-south direction to negate big-fly potential. Buzzing the top and the bottom of the zone will make it more difficult for hitters to generate that sweet uppercut swing. Oh, and one more reason to expect a decline: Arizona’s new humidor.
Now, let’s see what our fearless prognosticators have on their minds for 2018 …
Jed Rigney, Co-Founder and Senior Writer
Bryce Harper wins the NL MVP. As one of the most polarizing players in the game today, Bryce Harper is one of the league’s premier six-tool players. That’s right, not only does he have the vaunted five tools, he also has a sixth tool: being a tool. Yeah, he’s kind of a jerk. But he’s the kind of jerk that everyone wants on their own team, and he’s about to hit free agency for the first time. Estimates for the cost to acquire his services appear to be in the $35-$40 million range over eight to 10 years. Every home run, every stolen base, and, most importantly, every game he plays, will push those numbers up to their highest levels. I think this season Harper won’t miss more than few games as he racks up offensive numbers to maximize his value, and the Nationals willingly keep their foot on the pedal and get every last ounce of baseball out of him on his way out the door.
Rob Harris, Staff Writer
Giancarlo Stanton hits 70 home runs. Nobody else will be within fifteen of Stanton at the end of the season. Having Aaron Judge in the lineup will force pitchers to pitch to Stanton, and he’ll make them pay.
Jackie Micucci, Staff Writer
Brewers win the NL Central. Last year, the Brewers came just shy of winning the second wild card spot in the NL. This year they’ve added some key pieces including Christian Yelich who looked like a monster in spring training (he hit .356 with an OPS of 1.047 to date in the Cactus League). The Brew Crew could still use a little more pitching, but if they are in the hunt, as I think they will be at the trade deadline, they’ll make a move for an A+ arm that will make all the difference.
Gary Sanchez wins AL MVP. All the talk is about the new Yankees bash brothers: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. That dynamic duo will definitely hit a lot of dingers if healthy. However, Gary Sanchez is a quiet yet formidable force in the Yankees’ stacked lineup. Last season, he missed an entire month and still knocked 33 homeruns. I look for him to eclipse both his teammates and have an MVP caliber year.
Mariners tear it all up. Okay. Maybe not so bold. But it’s time to call it. The Ms aren’t going anywhere, especially in a division with the defending World Series champion Astros and an improved Angels team. Everything must go to restock a farm system that is bare bones. Say goodbye to Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, James Paxton and even Felix Hernandez (if he’s remotely healthy and effective). The only guy left standing in teal will be Robinson Cano and his huge contract.
Mike Viso, Staff Writer
After five straight division titles, the Dodgers miss the playoffs. The last two years have been especially grueling, mentally and physically. With the rise of the Giants and losing key cogs in Yu Darvish and Brandon Morrow, they’re doomed to even out after finishing first in MLB with a BAA of .228, but just 16th in Quality Starts. The overworked bullpen can’t continue at this pace. And QS will be at a premium when guys like Rich Hill and Alex Wood aren’t able to duplicate their 2017 numbers.
Randall Stevens, Staff Writer
Cleveland Indians will win the World Series. In the American League, everybody’s talking about the Yankees and Astros as the teams to beat. But in baseball, no outcome is set in stone. Who knows if this New York lineup will actually come together? What about their pitching? And will Houston be able to rise above the malaise of post-championship? Just ask the Cubs if it’s easy to make it back the next year. And speaking of the Cubs, lest we forget, this same Indians team was one lucky hit away from winning the World Series just 18 months ago. This season Cleveland has something that neither the Yankees or the Astros have: the AL Central Division – currently home to three of the worst teams in the entire league. It’s hard to believe I’m saying something good about where Cleveland is located, but in their division the Indians will be feasting on the carcasses of the Royals, Tigers and White Sox while the Yankees and Astros have to fight and scratch against strong divisional opponents who have a chance at the wild card.
